Conferences, Seminars, and Short Courses
Introduction to Probabilistic Modeling - October 21-22, 2004 Syracuse Research Corporation, Syracuse, New York

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Joint Carolinas and Southeast SETAC Chapters Regional Meeting
Atlanta, GA, March 25, 2004
Title: Introduction to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) – Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty in Ecological Risk Assessment
Author: Phil Goodrum
Powerpoint Presentation: Download Zipped Presentations
Excel Files: Download Zipped Excel Files
The entire Excel Toolkit is also available for download

SETAC
Austin, TX, November 9-13, 2003
Title: Utility of Stochastic Weather Models for Determining Properties of Rainfall Patterns Affecting Pesticide Fate and Transport
Authors: Molly Ramsey, Greg Johnson, and Phil Goodrum
Abstract: View Abstract
Powerpoint Presentation: Download Presentation

3rd Annual Environmental Systems Symposium at Syracuse
Syracuse, NY, October 27-28, 2003
Title: A Centralized Source of Measured Indoor Air Pollutant Concentrations and Supporting Information
Authors: Steven G. Swarts, Michele Stephenson, Philip Goodrum
Point of Contact: Steven Swarts, 315-452-8452, swarts@syrres.com
Abstract: View Abstract
Powerpoint Presentation: Download Presentation

Indoor Air Quality Problems and Engineering Solutions
Research Triangle Park, NC, July 21-23, 2003
Title: A Comprehensive, Web-based, Indoor Air Quality Database
Authors: Steven G. Swarts, Philip A. Goodrum, Shannon R. Magari, Jianshun
S, Zhang, and Dallas Aronson
Point of Contact: Steven Swarts, 315-452-8452, swarts@syrres.com
Abstract: View Abstract
Powerpoint Presentation: Download Presentation

Risk Communication of PRA
Before PRA will be widely adopted by risk managers to support remediation decisions, methods for communicating the strengths and weaknesses of PRA are needed. The PRA Center will conduct a survey of risk managers to determine the type of information from a PRA that is of greatest interest for decision-making. In addition, the PRA Center will evaluate fields other than risk assessment in which probabilistic modeling approaches have long been used to evaluate and solve problems. PRA Center activities will focus on developing clear, concise, and readily understandable graphical and tabular summaries of PRA results, including both the probability distributions used as input into the model, and the probability distributions for predicted outcomes. Work products will include guidance on risk communication with PRA, and the development of software and/or spreadsheet tools that can be used in the risk communication process for a variety of environmental modeling problems.
Listserve and Internet Web Site for Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) in PRA
The PRA Center will establish and maintain both a listserve to discuss issues related to PRA, and a web site to document frequently asked questions (FAQs). Similar to the conferences, seminars, and short courses, the goal of these activities is to foster collaboration and technical exchange among government, industry, and academia on topics related to PRA.
Spreadsheet Modeling Toolkit for PRA
For many PRAs, Monte Carlo analysis will be used to quantify variability and uncertainty in risk models. Commercial software for running Monte Carlo simulations and processing output is now available as add-ins to Microsoft Excel, making PRAs readily accessible to a broad range of scientists. However, there is still a demand for expertise in probability and statistics, and tools to facilitate the data analysis steps associated with developing probability distributions used in the Monte Carlo models. The PRA Center will serve as a resource to develop and periodically update an electronic notebook of spreadsheet applications of statistical approaches commonly used in PRA.

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